Monday Economic Report: Manufacturing Job Openings Exceed 1 Million for First Time

AICC, through its membership in the Council of Manufacturing Associations, is pleased to present the "Monday Economic Report" from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS (NAM).

By Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE –December 13, 2021

NAM Weekly Economic Toplines:

• There were a record 1,009,000 job openings in manufacturing in October, up from 948,000 in September. It was the seventh straight month with postings that have exceeded 800,000, averaging 899,000 over that time frame. In October, both durable and nondurable goods firms also experienced record paces of job openings.

• Nonfarm business job openings increased from 10,602,000 in September to 11,033,000 in October, which was not far from the record level in July (11,098,000). For every 100 job openings, there were just 67 unemployed workers in the U.S. economy to potentially fill them.

• Initial unemployment claims fell to 184,000 for the week ending Dec. 4, the lowest since the week ending May 10, 1969.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose from 67.4 in November to 70.4 in December, largely on worries about inflation, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. The headline index has averaged 70.5 over the past five months (August to December), down from 84.6 in the prior five months (March to July).

• Interestingly, households in the lowest third of income distribution felt more upbeat in consumer sentiment. Consumers with less household income predicted the fastest wage growth over the next 12 months since 1981, speaking to the competitiveness of the labor market and the need for sharply higher compensation to attract and keep workers.

• Consumer prices increased 0.8% in November, and excluding food and energy, core consumer prices increased 0.5%. The consumer price index has risen 6.9% over the past 12 months (seasonally adjusted), the fastest year-over-year pace since June 1982. At the same time, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) increased by a seasonally adjusted 5.0% year-over-year in November, up from 4.6% in the prior release and the biggest increase since June 1991.

• Prices are predicted to continue growing by more than consumers have become accustomed to in recent years, even with some stabilization in the coming months. The current forecast is for core consumer inflation to rise around 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2022.

• For its part, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce an acceleration in the pace of tapering its asset purchases at the Dec. 14–15 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In addition, the FOMC could start increasing short-term interest rates as soon as the May 3–4, 2022, meeting once the tapering concludes. 

• After soaring to a record high, skewed by supply chain disruptions and the chip shortage, the U.S. trade deficit plummeted from $81.44 billion in September to $67.12 billion in October, a six-month low. Good exports and imports both jumped to new all-time highs, but growth for the former far outpaced the latter.

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